How serious are we about avoiding nuclear conflict?

by Kristine Bolisay & Althea Arevalo

In a world teetering on the edge of chaos, the threat of nuclear conflict looms larger than ever. We must ask ourselves a fundamental question: Are we truly committed to avoiding nuclear war, or are we merely paying lip service while the global situation deteriorates? As we witness escalating conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, it’s crucial to assess our responses and policies. Are we genuinely pursuing peace, or are we inadvertently fuelling the very fires we hope to extinguish? Today, I urge you to reflect on our role in these crises and consider whether our actions align with our commitment to a safer, more stable world.

The smell of smoke hangs heavy in the air, the relentless sound of gunfire echoing through the street as Ukraine remains embroiled in a conflict that has claimed innocent lives. Civil war broke out in 2014, the country has been in a state of civil war, with war crimes committed by the Ukrainian forces reported by the OCSE. These crimes included unlawful detentions, torture, and summary executions, painting a grim picture of the human cost of this prolonged conflict. The situation escalated drastically when Russia invaded in February 2022, leading to a devastating toll. Over 10,582 civilians have been killed, and 19,875 injured, according to the UN. This reality forces us to question whether our efforts are truly aimed at fostering peace, or if we are inadvertently exacerbating the violence.

The human toll extends far beyond the immediate casualties. 3.7 million Ukrainians are internally displaced, torn from their homes and communities. Another 6.5 million have fled the country entirely, seeking refuge from the chaos that has engulfed their homeland. In total, a staggering 14.6 million people, nearly a third of Ukraine’s pre-war population, are in desperate need of humanitarian assistance as the conflict grinds on, with 18% of Ukraine still under Russian occupation.

Russia’s actions have further complicated the situation, holding referendums in four regions, asking residents if they wanted to join the Russian Federation, signalling their intention to retain control over these areas. Additionally, Russia conducted training drills using tactical nuclear weapons, which are designed for use on the battlefield with lower explosive yields compared to strategic nuclear weapons. These drills served as a clear message and threat, highlighting the severe risks and potential for escalation in the conflict. The spectre of nuclear warfare casts a long shadow over these developments, reminding us of the dire consequences of missteps in our foreign policy and international relations.

The war in Ukraine is not a distant abstraction. It is a raw, bleeding wound on the conscience of the world, demanding our attention and action. Every day that passes without resolution is another day of lives shattered, dreams deferred. This same urgency is echoed in the long-standing conflict in the Middle East.
In 1948, the state of Israel was founded on Palestinian-inhabited land. This event would lead to a mass displacement of the Palestinians, most of whom would become refugees in the Gaza Strip. With the conflict unresolved, it has since been under attack by the Israel Defense Forces, or the IDF, for the past 70 years, but now more than ever, the threats of nuclear disaster are escalating rapidly.

On October 7th of 2023, Hamas, a militant Palestinian group, launched land, air, and sea attacks on the state of Israel, killing 1200 Israeli citizens, and taking over 200 hostages. The following days, Israel would declare themselves in a state of war, Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister of Israel, ordered a “complete siege” of the Gaza Strip, and immediately the IDF fighter jets would begin air strikes. Electricity, water, food, and fuel have been cut off from the Palestinians, and as of July 2024, 1.9 million, or 90% of Gaza’s citizens, have been internally displaced, some multiple times. 40,000 are confirmed dead, and the International Court of Justice has just declared Israel guilty of apartheid. Global pressure for a ceasefire has intensified, with widespread demands for action coming from across the international community.

Regionally, the crisis is escalating beyond Gaza. The Houthi movement in Yemen has been targeting and seizing any ship inbound for Israel until Gaza is given the food and medicine it needs. In response, on July 20th, the IDF air struck a crucial port to Yemen’s weaponry and humanitarian aid. Likewise, Lebanon’s militant group Hezbollah has been under fire from the IDF, evacuating tens of thousands from northern Lebanon, to escape Israeli airstrikes. Lastly, Iran, which does not recognize Israel’s existence, and Israel, which views Iran as “an existential threat”, have been engaged in a series of confrontations, including a dangerously close strike near Isfahan, Iran, where its military nuclear programs are located. In this volatile context, Israel has accused Iran of developing nuclear weapons, a claim that Iran firmly denies. This accusation further complicates the already tense and multifaceted conflict in the region.

It’s important to keep in mind that it’s pretty much a given that Israel has nuclear weapons. Even though there has never been a formal confirmation, Israel’s Minister for Heritage has not denied the possibility of using nuclear attacks to escalate the war. Sure this choice would permanently end the conflict, but it would have catastrophic death tolls for all parties involved, and would forever have lasting effects on generations to come. It would leave the land uninhabitable for decades, and would displace millions. And so if the United States follows through with Joe Biden’s promise to “do all we can to protect Israel’s security,” this could mean the beginning of the first global nuclear war is much closer than any of us can imagine.

So the question is, shouldn’t Canada be using its influence to bring lasting peace to this region? To achieve this, we must critically examine and question the increasingly assertive actions taken by our government.

Historically, Canada was among the Western nations that possessed nuclear weapons during the Cold War, though these were handed over in 1984. Despite this, Canada has not entirely disarmed; our ongoing NATO membership precludes us from endorsing the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), and we remain engaged in NATO’s nuclear development and proliferation efforts. This alignment is largely due to our military alliance with the United States and, by extension, NATO. However, a 2021 poll indicated that 74% of Canadians support joining the TPNW and moving away from nuclear weapons. Given its active involvement in the nuclear arms fight, Canada is likely to become a carrier for American nuclear weapons in the near future. In the development of the F-35 fighter jet and the B61-12 nuclear bomb. The latter of which the F-35 is specifically designed to deploy. If Canada proceeds with acquiring the F-35, it will be directly involved in the deployment of these nuclear weapons for the United States.

As we stand at this critical juncture, it is imperative to evaluate our actions and their alignment with our professed commitment to a safer, more stable world. Are we genuinely striving for peace, or are we inadvertently perpetuating a cycle of violence and instability? The answer to this question will determine the future of global security and the legacy we leave for generations to come. It is time to move beyond rhetoric and take meaningful steps towards de-escalation, diplomacy, and genuine resolution. The fact that we are alive right now is already hope, but the stakes have never been higher, and the world is watching.

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